The Second Trump Presidency, Generative AI, and 2028

On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump will control the entire federal government.  He also is the first Republican candidate of the 21st century to enjoy the support of the majority Americans who voted.  He will have the White House, the Senate, (most likely) the House, and the Supreme Court.  And he enjoys an approximately five-million-vote majority.

       Who are these 71 million Americans who handed Trump this breathtaking victory?  Of course, the answer is highly complicated.  How many different kinds of voters danced on the head of the Trump pin?  In simplest terms, putting aside the infinite variations and recognizing the instances of overlap, I see two basic types.  There are those who voted for Trump on the basis of their political, cultural and religious principles.  The core of these are the MAGAs, Trump’s immovable, impervious base.  The other, far-larger group comprises Republicans, independents, and even many Democrats concerned about the economy and immigration.

        Together, they have given Donald Trump what should be his last hurrah.

        Trump is in a remarkably flexible position.  What he does may depend on what he wants from this second bite of the presidential apple.

       If he wants to bask in the White House spotlight for the next four years, enrich his family’s fortune, and burnish his legacy, he can pursue moderately conservative policies.  He can throw his MAGA core a few bones: pardon the January 6th insurrectionists, abolish the Department of Education, appoint ultra-conservative judges, staff his cabinet with MAGA’s darlings.

     Meanwhile, he can placate all the non-MAGAs who rallied around him this year by pursuing policies that help lower prices and rope in inflation, while sustaining a strong job market.

      Both factions will applaud a strong-border policy.  He can round up and deport a sufficient number of undocumented immigrants with sufficient fanfare to garner applause, without tripping into accusations of a second Holocaust.

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        On the other hand… if Trump has aspirations of being “President for Life,” his task becomes a lot tougher.  His MAGA folks will support any and every extreme step Trump might take to consolidate his hold on executive power, cow the Congress, and intimidate his hand-picked Justices.

         Drawing to his cause those voters who supported him this year primarily based on their pocketbooks would be a much heavier lift.  It’s axiomatic that he will have to eliminate national elections.  Trump apparently has pondered this.  At one point during the campaign, he assured his religious-right audience that, if he was reelected, this would be the last election they would ever need.  Since eliminating the two-term limit would require a constitutional amendment, he would have no choice but to cancel the 2028 election.  But this doesn’t mean his new-found popular majority would be docile.  A broad and violent backlash, that might include many who elected Trump this year, could thwart any such attempt at disenfranchisement.

        Furthermore, any similarities between Weimar Germany in 1932-33 and America in 2024-25 are dwarfed by the differences.  Fifty quasi-independent state governments, each enjoying substantial resources (including National Guard and state police forces), make federal control of the nation impractical, if not impossible.

         Last, but not least, look at Joe Biden, if you want to see Trump in 2028.  Yes, we have some examples of octogenarian despots and dictators.  But they are the exceptions, not the rule.  And The Donald is already showing his age, both physically and mentally.

          Put all this together and I think that a cagey, self-centered Donald Trump will not seriously pursue this goal. 

           Granted, he might want to be remembered as the father of a fascist state… a Moses who won’t personally lead Americans into the promised land.  He might see one of his sons as Joshua.  That’s not inconceivable, but I have strong doubts.  I’m going to leave it at that.

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            So… this leads me to several assumptions:

·      Trump has nothing to lose by disappointing his MAGA core.  True, he’s the loosest of cannons and might drive the enactment of some extreme measures purely out of spite and mischievousness.  But “President for Life”? As I just said, I doubt it.

·      His best bet for smooth sailing to a revered and sumptuous retirement is to please both supporters and opponents by fostering the prosperity that those new-found supporters expect from his presidency.

·      Meanwhile, he can solidify the financial position of the Trump dynasty.

       If he takes this path --- and here I reiterate that I don’t entirely dismiss the possibility he’ll behave like a fascist dictator, as many opponents fear --- he could leave the GOP in the catbird seat for the next generation. 

       This is where artificial intelligence enters the analysis in my opinion.  Aye, there’s the rub.

       In the past two years I have read and heard endless blather about how to manage Generative AI for a better workplace.  These articles typically end with an exhortation to use GenAI to improve employees’ performance and job satisfaction…not to replace them.  Where is the realism in that hortatory wishful thinking?  When have for-profit corporations voluntarily done anything but for profit?

       The onslaught of AI poses a real problem for the GOP.  The party of corporate and financial power, the party of minimal regulation of business, the party of Elon Musk, will be hard pressed, most likely absolutely adverse to reining in GenAI.  And make no mistake: GenAI will eliminate a hell of a lot more jobs than it will create.  Just ask Hollywood’s voice actors, on strike against AI these past three months. 

        This morning the Democratic establishment simply must be asking itself, “Who are our leaders and where do we go from here?”

         Fear mongering about a fascist Trump failed in the face of economic reality.  DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) holds no appeal for the American majority either, especially when carried to extremes by the far-left wing of the party.

         Better that Democrats focus on such economic realities as won Trump the White House yesterday.  And GenAI is looming large as one of those economic realities… one that will be ever-more disruptive to the detriment of working Americans. 

         Once average, working Americans understand how robust is GenAI’s threat to their livelihoods and careers, they can be expected to turn against it.  The party that champions this cause will enjoy a distinct advantage in 2028.